Macron sends long-range missiles to Ukraine whilst calling the Kremlin and begging for de-escalation.

playing both sides, he prolongs the war while pretending he wants peace.

Good day, spectators,

It’s hard to keep a straight face this morning upon hearing that French President Emmanuel Macron called Vladimir Putin to plead for de-escalation—while simultaneously approving long-range missile strikes deep into Russia for Ukraine.

It’s certainly a decision. Not one I would make but it is indeed a decision. Think of it as the diplomatic equivalent of pouring petrol on a fire, then politely asking the flames to behave. Macron’s not alone either as this week, NATO’s finest have all stepped up to greenlight escalations under the guise of “support” for Ukraine—support that, after three years of flaccidly dangling carrots, has left Ukraine isolated, overextended, and facing a grim reality: the war is probably not winnable without direct intervention.

But let’s be clear: NATO’s posturing isn’t about victory. It’s about prolonging the inevitable—until someone else has to deal with the fallout. With Trump looming on the horizon and likely to pursue a peace deal that involves ceding annexed territories, Western leaders are scrambling to look busy while the world watches Ukraine burn.

the carrot that keeps the donkey going.

For three years now, NATO has played a game of half-measures with Ukraine, dangling the promise of victory while withholding the kind of support that could actually achieve it. Now, with Ukraine facing a demographic collapse—millions displaced, morale on the floor, and a recruitment crisis—NATO’s strategy has shifted to escalation, handing over long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia.

But let’s not pretend this is a bold move. Macron’s missile deliveries, paired with his desperate phone call to Putin, tell the real story: NATO doesn’t want this war. They don’t want the responsibility, the risks, or the consequences of real involvement. Ukraine has become a convenient proxy, a way to antagonise Russia without putting their own boots on the ground.

The hypocrisy is staggering. The same leaders who armed Ukraine to the teeth are now wringing their hands, begging Putin to play nice because they know full well that Russia isn’t bluffing. Putin’s recent nuclear posturing has NATO sweating bullets, and their response is as confused as it is cowardly: escalate the war, but hope Putin doesn’t escalate back.

And where does this leave Ukraine? Trapped in a war it cannot win, with Western leaders using it as a pawn to prove their resolve without actually committing to victory. Meanwhile, the annexed territories—territories that Western leaders swore would never fall to Russia—are now all but gone, and Ukraine’s remaining forces are stretched too thin to recover them. The Kyiv Independent reports that Ukraine needs an additional 500,000 recruits to sustain the war effort—a number that seems increasingly unattainable given the current circumstances. Every single day I see videos of men fighting back against recruiters that try to literally kidnap them from the streets because they don't want to go to a war that they don't believe they can win over the East. Here’s one of those videos I saw just this morning:

At this rate, it’s only a matter of time before Trump swoops in to “fix” the mess, brokering a peace deal that NATO has avoided like the plague. The terms will likely include recognising Russian control over annexed regions, a bitter pill that Ukraine will have no choice but to swallow.

in the end, it doesn’t really matter.

It’s a tale as old as NATO’s involvement in this war: bold rhetoric, empty promises, and actions that seem more designed to manage appearances than resolve the conflict. Macron’s phone call to Putin isn’t a gesture of diplomacy—it’s an admission that this latest round of escalation is just posturing. Western leaders are out of ideas and, frankly, out of time.

For Ukraine, the writing is on the wall. The additional 500,000 recruits it desperately needs will not materialise, not when its population has been decimated by displacement, annexation, and death. The long-range missiles gifted by NATO will inflict damage, but they won’t win the war. Meanwhile, Russia is more entrenched than ever in the annexed territories, and no amount of desperate Western support is going to turn the tide.

In the end, it’s the usual players who’ll make their appearance to close this. Trump will saunter in, hammer out a “deal” that leaves Ukraine with no choice but to cede its territories, and call it a victory for peace. NATO will nod sagely and congratulate itself on its role in prolonging the inevitable. And Macron? He’ll probably still be crying on the phone to Putin.

Later this week, I’ll be writing a deep dive into the current military and geopolitical situation in Ukraine and what the future holds. This will be featured in the microscope—our new section where we tackle longer, more detailed analyses for paid subscribers. Watch this space.

And on that note, I’ll leave you,

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