Russia is not losing the war in Ukraine.

I don't know who needs to hear this but Zelensky is stuck in a no-win battle and Ukraine’s manpower has dried up.

A Russian soldier makes a shell angel near the front this winter.

Good day, spectators,

And yes, I know fine well that the title of this article might make some of you uncomfortable and so it should. My aim isn’t to echo the narratives people have been hearing from mainstream channels over the years. Instead, it’s to deliver the truth, even when it’s hard to swallow.

Nearly three years ago, like many, I laughed at the Russian military's incompetence as it bumbled its way toward Kyiv. Back then, I would never have imagined that today, Ukraine would be on its last legs, grappling with one of the most devastating demographic crises in modern history. President Zelensky, after enduring years of unrelenting pressure, has recently started to prepare Ukrainians for negotiations—a stark contrast to the fiery rhetoric of the war's early days.

The poor chap has been forced into a tragic role, appearing in endless conferences with outstretched hands, pleading for support that simply isn’t coming. But the real issue isn’t just equipment or money; it’s manpower—or rather, the lack of it. Ukraine has reached a desperate point where it’s considering recruiting teenagers, and the Territorial Defence Command (TCC) is resorting to aggressive, often outright inhumane tactics to press-gang men off the streets.

And why is this happening? Because morale is in tatters. The writing is on the wall, and the many people Ukraine know it. After three years of bloody fighting, those few contested regions in the east hardly seem worth the cost of an entire generation of men. And let’s be honest—if we can see this, so can they.

Some will read this article and immediately brand me a Russian propagandist. But let me be very clear, I am no lover of an absolutist, right-wing dictator like Putin. I’m just a realist and I care about the humans at the bottom being killed. And what I see is NATO’s failure, if not outright betrayal, of Ukraine. As Boris Johnson recently admitted, “This is a proxy war,” and it’s come at the expense of countless Ukrainian lives.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: “NATO will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian man.”

And then what? It will wrap up its "support," claim a strategic victory, and leave Ukraine in ruins. Russia, battered but alive, will emerge weakened. The West will pat itself on the back for crippling its rival without sacrificing a single NATO soldier. That’s the insidious genius of it all—NATO has waged a war against Russia without ever having to fight it directly. The costs, meanwhile, have been borne entirely by working-class Ukrainians and Russians.

If you’re curious about the depth of this crisis, my microscope deep dive offers a very comprehensive look at Ukraine’s current predicament:

I also wrote a short bit about the US pushing Ukraine to conscript teenagers to plug its manpower gap, a move that speaks volumes about how far gone we are:

I estimate the “hot” phase of this war will wind down by Easter next year, maybe even sooner. Zelensky is already floating the idea of ceasefire negotiations while Putin remains unmoved. Why would he rush? Russia is advancing on every axis—north, east, and south—and it’s not even close to exhausting its resources. The Kremlin hasn’t tapped into its major cities for recruitment yet. It could drag this war out for another three years if it wanted and still emerge standing, albeit economically battered.

Photo from the front. A squad of Russian soldiers in Donetsk.

On the flip side, Zelensky’s position is…unenviable to say the least. He’s stuck in a no-win situation, desperately trying to negotiate a ceasefire while lobbying for guarantees of lasting peace. NATO membership is a non-starter, and European leaders have been cold to the idea of deploying peacekeepers. Meanwhile, Trump looms on the horizon, ready to sweep back into power with zero interest in Ukraine. He didn’t even invite Zelensky to his upcoming inauguration, that’s telling.

And so, Zelensky finds himself at the mercy of events beyond his control. Russia doesn’t need to make concessions; it just has to keep going. NATO, meanwhile, seems to be washing its hands of the mess, content with the damage inflicted on Russia. Ukraine? It’s the pawn left shattered on the chessboard. The country was already gravely in debt before this war started and I dread to think of how deep that debt is now. Rebuilding the country is going to be a monumental effort and the only country that genuinely has any interest in rebuilding it is, wait for it…Russia.

I’ll leave you with this thought: if NATO’s grand strategy was to weaken Russia at the expense of Ukraine, then by every measure, this war is a success. But for Ukraine, its people, and its future? It’s an unmitigated disaster honestly, a betrayal,

(As always, thanks for reading and if you found this post informative, please give it a ❤️ and restack below.)

---

the spectacle is only possible because of its committed subscribers. I tackle the geopolitical stories mainstream news channels ignore, distort or simply lie about. Help keep it going and supporting independent journalism by becoming a paid subscriber. Alternatively, buy me a sandwich for 3 euro below! As a young writer, it means more than you know.