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Shaniqua DuBois's avatar

Fucking hell. Deaglan 😂 that title pulls no punches

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Rahul's avatar

The overall premise of your article is bang on (abject poverty is by far the most pressing issue not just in India, but across the subcontinent). And your observations regarding the hypernationalist authoritarian playbook that Modi employs are accurate for the most part - as are the implied/stated parallels with his contemporaries. Pakistan is to India what Iran is to Israel, i.e. the 'mastermind of terror' and 'root of all evil'. I suppose we should be thankful that the Indians give us a little more variety by making three boogeymen (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Hizbul Mujahedeen) directly responsible as opposed just 'Khhhamas'.

That said, if you go back to 2019 (Pulwama) or 2016 (Uri), you'll get a sense of how the Pahalgam episode is likely to play out this time around. There will be some tit for tat strikes, some damage will be done on both sides and their respective media mouthpieces will go on overdrive with the jingoism for their respective audiences to claim victory (with incredible amounts of mental gymnastics to define what exactly constitutes 'success'). And in another 3-5 years something similar will happen again and that too will play out similarly.

Simply put, India and Pakistan are in a stalemate as far as Kashmir is concerned. Each side controls a portion of the disputed territory while claiming it in full. In my view, both are uncompromising in this regard because they perceive Kashmir as vital to their own water security - all the major rivers flowing into Northern India and Pakistan's agricultural heartlands originate from the Himalayan mountain ranges in Kashmir. Both countries have a nuclear arsenal with a second strike capability and enough warheads to annihilate each other. To add to that, India also has to simultaneously contend with China, where many parts of the 4,000km border that they share across the north eastern sector of the Himalayan range (where it meets the Tibetian plateau) is disputed. Resultantly, India can never fully deploy it's army on the Western front against Pakistan, which reduces the disparity between both sides as far as conventional military power is concerned (the latter has a smaller standing army for obvious reasons).

As far as 'terrorism' (a term I have come to absolutely loathe given how loaded it's become) goes - India has a track record of funding and arming separatists in Pakistan's Balochistan province for the better part of 50-60 years. There are also allegations (which seem plausible, although the details are murkier and difficult to to ascertain) that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in the northwest (along the Afghan border) gets some clandestine support from the Indian intelligence as well. Likewise Pakistan's military and intelligence apparatus has long provided various Kashmiri groups (particularly those who favour joining Pakistan) with much of the same. Essentially, both sides treat these cessationist movements as instruments to inflict harm upon the other at a limited scale while being able to maintain plausible deniability. And the ultimate losers of course are ordinary Baloch, Kashmiris, Pashtuns.

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