The overall premise of your article is bang on (abject poverty is by far the most pressing issue not just in India, but across the subcontinent). And your observations regarding the hypernationalist authoritarian playbook that Modi employs are accurate for the most part - as are the implied/stated parallels with his contemporaries. Pakistan is to India what Iran is to Israel, i.e. the 'mastermind of terror' and 'root of all evil'. I suppose we should be thankful that the Indians give us a little more variety by making three boogeymen (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Hizbul Mujahedeen) directly responsible as opposed just 'Khhhamas'.
That said, if you go back to 2019 (Pulwama) or 2016 (Uri), you'll get a sense of how the Pahalgam episode is likely to play out this time around. There will be some tit for tat strikes, some damage will be done on both sides and their respective media mouthpieces will go on overdrive with the jingoism for their respective audiences to claim victory (with incredible amounts of mental gymnastics to define what exactly constitutes 'success'). And in another 3-5 years something similar will happen again and that too will play out similarly.
Simply put, India and Pakistan are in a stalemate as far as Kashmir is concerned. Each side controls a portion of the disputed territory while claiming it in full. In my view, both are uncompromising in this regard because they perceive Kashmir as vital to their own water security - all the major rivers flowing into Northern India and Pakistan's agricultural heartlands originate from the Himalayan mountain ranges in Kashmir. Both countries have a nuclear arsenal with a second strike capability and enough warheads to annihilate each other. To add to that, India also has to simultaneously contend with China, where many parts of the 4,000km border that they share across the north eastern sector of the Himalayan range (where it meets the Tibetian plateau) is disputed. Resultantly, India can never fully deploy it's army on the Western front against Pakistan, which reduces the disparity between both sides as far as conventional military power is concerned (the latter has a smaller standing army for obvious reasons).
As far as 'terrorism' (a term I have come to absolutely loathe given how loaded it's become) goes - India has a track record of funding and arming separatists in Pakistan's Balochistan province for the better part of 50-60 years. There are also allegations (which seem plausible, although the details are murkier and difficult to to ascertain) that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in the northwest (along the Afghan border) gets some clandestine support from the Indian intelligence as well. Likewise Pakistan's military and intelligence apparatus has long provided various Kashmiri groups (particularly those who favour joining Pakistan) with much of the same. Essentially, both sides treat these cessationist movements as instruments to inflict harm upon the other at a limited scale while being able to maintain plausible deniability. And the ultimate losers of course are ordinary Baloch, Kashmiris, Pashtuns.
Thanks for commenting, Rahul! This is really insightful and you've added a lot of context and wisdom which I simply don't know! I agree the conflict likely will not escalate too much, I do think Modi can keep it on a medium-to-high burn though to help his authoritarianism.
Neither side has the ability to decisively alter the status quo in its favour conventionally, which make the tit for tat strikes performative. Modi tacitly acknowledged when he handed the responsibility of when, where, how to respond to the Pahalgam attack to the Indian military.
To "keep it on a medium to high burn" there's the pliant jingoistic media to do all the work for him.
Within India however, the police, army, rabid Hindutva mobs are all likely to go after Kashmiris and Indian Muslims with renewed vigour.
Al Jazeera's been reporting on the escalating persecution of Muslims in India for months. Modi's a rabid Hindu nationalist, which makes me wonder about anyone who cozies up to him. He got his political start by allowing a pogrom that massacred hundreds of Muslims in some western state.
I know millions of Indian farmers have staged protests lately, and I do believe the Congress Party made some gains in the last election, so yeah, Modi's pulling the oldest political trick in the book.
When in trouble domestically, create a foreign policy crisis and wrap yourself in the flag. Modi's just doing the Bollywood version.
The fact that India thinks it’s going to be a world power is hilarious cause they are in constant internal conflict and they can’t even provide basic services to their citizens. If my country 🇲🇽 can do it, they can. India is really following the steps of the US, humiliation and decay.
I suspect you hadn’t noticed the population in China started dropping about 5 years ago and the repercussions of the one child policy will soon kick in to see the numbers drop rapidly.
One of the effects of this is labour costs in China have risen steeply hastening the outsourcing to Vietnam and other cheaper places to produce.
China’s grip as the world’s predominant production powerhouse will slowly loosen as their population declines.
BTW: Whenever you see someone mention hasbara it’s a good sign they are of a particularly gullible disposition.
While reading this, I kept thinking of how in my hometown of San Diego they've had to literally bleach the streets because there was so much human feces because there are so many unhoused people with nowhere to shit there. America can fund a genocide in Israel but can't give it's citizens basic services like healthcare, toilets, or education.
I appreciate the sentiment of your comment and the truth of what you say, but I don't think you can truly appreciate the concept of people defecating on the streets until you've been to India and stood at a crowded intersection waiting to cross the street when the person standing next to you squats down and does his business right next to you on the sidewalk. There is so much feces everywhere that people living in cardboard boxes are out in the morning on their hands and knees with a board scraping the feces off the sidewalk in front of their cardboard houses.
To be fair, they've come a long way in a short period. That 10% figure was 70% not too long ago.
I do think Modi is a performative nationalist. He's basically using the fear of foreigners to prop up his government, something many similar nations do (like ours). Yet it's not all negative - under Modi India has retained its non-aligned status to a great degree. It would have been an easy and natural move for him to ally fully with Trump's America (I'm not especially opposed to Trump, but vassalage is not healthy for any polity)
India will do very well this century if it acts as a conduit between West and East. Maintain good relations with both, focus on development at home.
As far as Pakistan goes - their legitimate leader is still imprisoned on the orders of the US State Department. Perhaps if he was released from prison Khan would be able to sort out some of these issues on their side.
Something that's not being talked about is how Pakistan is not exactly aching to launch nuclear missiles everywhere. Conflict is almost certainly restrained as a result of Pakistan also having nuclear weapons. If only India had them (as indeed, only Israel does in that conflict) then it's pretty much guaranteed that there would be a full scale war on right now.
What does this say about any prospective Iranian nuclear program? Could it bring similar restraint to that region? I highly doubt the Israelis would bomb Tehran if they had nuclear weapons.
As far as the risk of nuclear escalation goes, it's worth remembering that on both sides (India and Pakistan), the people with the authority to launch those missiles live in incredibly opulent palaces and for obvious reasons have as much reason as anyone to see the continuation of their cities without mushroom clouds. When you're living the high life you aren't exactly keen on nuclear war.
Every single one an excellent point. Thanks JC! And yeah I would like to see Khan released. He's actually being pretty calm about being locked up. India will only 'do good' when it takes care of its people like China does though
Has Modi’s desperation finally come to a head? Not sure if this was not arranged by some nice people from the outside. What was this for a Franrange-Friendly deal Stramer and his crew lanced yesterday? I Had a phone call with friends and ex-colleagues in Lahore and Delhi last night and can't get the popcorn out. https://substack.com/home/post/p-163044940
You are absolutely on the right track: Modi is more concerned with the Hindu mode and scaring the ever-growing middle class so that they don't get too cheeky with their demands on the oligarchs.
A leader with NO PRIORITY WHATSOEVER. His priority is something else, and it's obviously not peace or his own people security. He is like indian version of Netanyahu, let'a go on war first, think later.
Homelessness rates jumped by double digits in 2024 as Americans battled to afford housing
Across the U.S., more than 771,800 people lived without housing in 2024, according to a count taken annually on a single night in January. The number for January 2024 is 18.1% higher than in 2023
146,430 households were assessed as being threatened with homelessness and therefore owed a prevention duty in 2023-24. This is a 3.1% increase from 2022-23.
Spending in a record number of NATO members reaches 2 per cent of GDP
All NATO members increased their military expenditure in 2024. Total military spending by NATO members amounted to $1506 billion, or 55 per cent of global military expenditure....
Military spending by the USA rose by 5.7 per cent to reach $997 billion, which was 66 per cent of total NATO spending and 37 per cent of world military spending in 2024. ...
In 2024 the United Kingdom increased its military expenditure by 2.8 per cent to reach $81.8 billion, making it the sixth biggest spender worldwide.....
Never mind India and Pakistan - sort out priorities in over here first.
I understand your writing in general. But its very easy for such things to be misused as diversions, if not grounded in own insanities.
There has been a similar situation with Ukraine. Seemingly unnoticed by many people there is a wave of tubercolosis infection eruption across Europe. The reason: migration of refugees from Europe "sick man" country, Ukraine. A country that was the poorest and most corrupt in Europe, and its "leader" yet went to the US and UK to collect money for weapons and even to operate bioweapons labs (!!) while the Ukrainian people were STILL living under such negelected condition that tuberculosis was and has been rampant among the Ukranian people.
And yet you wont find hardly a word in the European media that even explains that this TB infection is from Ukranian migrants, let alone to ask WFT everyone in Europe and the US continites to give them weapons, while ignoring even their basic healthcare for several decades now.
Westerners must really be continually shown this lens of how their own insanities are really not different than the ones outside. Its necessary to pop this bubble of a completely unfounced superiority complex
I live in Italy and TB is real. I also have an autoimmune disease and when I need to get procedures I now not only need to get the usual blood test and EKG, I have to make sure I don't have TB infection. That wasn't the case five years ago. It was just assumed we don't have it.
Your comment might work if you were responding to a different writer but doesn't really work for Deaglan as he calls out ALL countries for this bullshit
My comment is valid in ALL circumstances. Such commentaries should be grounded in the overall context.
The responses to this conflict have been insane. I read a huge article in Reuters yesteday saying this conflict was irresponible because it involves nuclear-armed countries. Yes, the same Reuters that has been cheerleading a western proxy war that includes attacks on Russian strategic bomber facilities and radar facilties, and assassinations of the head of Russian nucelar forces.
Any western comment in this must of course be first grounded in the own insanities of the west.
Without reinforcing that first, this will simply be absorbed as a means of diversion from own problems.
To be fair the current waste water system is far more disgusting than natural defecation if the waste is composted.
What many people do not know is that we are creating forever pollution and wasting a massive resource at huge cost because we have not advanced our technology for centuries while adding plastics and chemicals into the mix.
Honestly, sounds like 90% of all 3rd world countries. The problems seem to be always the same: rampant corruption, sectarianism (india sidesteped secular justicion by judging people according to laws of their specific religion), tribalism and a general disunity among the ethnic groups within the country.
Its too many problems at once for even the most capablea leaders to manage. So they pounce at the first problem that gives them the opportunity to unite the populace behind them. Not that western govs do anything else....
As of May 11, 2025, neither India nor Pakistan has officially declared war. However, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have experienced a significant military escalation in recent weeks, marking one of the most serious confrontations in decades.
Fucking hell. Deaglan 😂 that title pulls no punches
The overall premise of your article is bang on (abject poverty is by far the most pressing issue not just in India, but across the subcontinent). And your observations regarding the hypernationalist authoritarian playbook that Modi employs are accurate for the most part - as are the implied/stated parallels with his contemporaries. Pakistan is to India what Iran is to Israel, i.e. the 'mastermind of terror' and 'root of all evil'. I suppose we should be thankful that the Indians give us a little more variety by making three boogeymen (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Hizbul Mujahedeen) directly responsible as opposed just 'Khhhamas'.
That said, if you go back to 2019 (Pulwama) or 2016 (Uri), you'll get a sense of how the Pahalgam episode is likely to play out this time around. There will be some tit for tat strikes, some damage will be done on both sides and their respective media mouthpieces will go on overdrive with the jingoism for their respective audiences to claim victory (with incredible amounts of mental gymnastics to define what exactly constitutes 'success'). And in another 3-5 years something similar will happen again and that too will play out similarly.
Simply put, India and Pakistan are in a stalemate as far as Kashmir is concerned. Each side controls a portion of the disputed territory while claiming it in full. In my view, both are uncompromising in this regard because they perceive Kashmir as vital to their own water security - all the major rivers flowing into Northern India and Pakistan's agricultural heartlands originate from the Himalayan mountain ranges in Kashmir. Both countries have a nuclear arsenal with a second strike capability and enough warheads to annihilate each other. To add to that, India also has to simultaneously contend with China, where many parts of the 4,000km border that they share across the north eastern sector of the Himalayan range (where it meets the Tibetian plateau) is disputed. Resultantly, India can never fully deploy it's army on the Western front against Pakistan, which reduces the disparity between both sides as far as conventional military power is concerned (the latter has a smaller standing army for obvious reasons).
As far as 'terrorism' (a term I have come to absolutely loathe given how loaded it's become) goes - India has a track record of funding and arming separatists in Pakistan's Balochistan province for the better part of 50-60 years. There are also allegations (which seem plausible, although the details are murkier and difficult to to ascertain) that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in the northwest (along the Afghan border) gets some clandestine support from the Indian intelligence as well. Likewise Pakistan's military and intelligence apparatus has long provided various Kashmiri groups (particularly those who favour joining Pakistan) with much of the same. Essentially, both sides treat these cessationist movements as instruments to inflict harm upon the other at a limited scale while being able to maintain plausible deniability. And the ultimate losers of course are ordinary Baloch, Kashmiris, Pashtuns.
Thanks for commenting, Rahul! This is really insightful and you've added a lot of context and wisdom which I simply don't know! I agree the conflict likely will not escalate too much, I do think Modi can keep it on a medium-to-high burn though to help his authoritarianism.
Neither side has the ability to decisively alter the status quo in its favour conventionally, which make the tit for tat strikes performative. Modi tacitly acknowledged when he handed the responsibility of when, where, how to respond to the Pahalgam attack to the Indian military.
To "keep it on a medium to high burn" there's the pliant jingoistic media to do all the work for him.
Within India however, the police, army, rabid Hindutva mobs are all likely to go after Kashmiris and Indian Muslims with renewed vigour.
Gives a whole new meaning, or maybe not that new to the name Bomb-bay
Resources AND the sectarian aspect make this particularly ugly and no doubt it will run and run, sad.
Al Jazeera's been reporting on the escalating persecution of Muslims in India for months. Modi's a rabid Hindu nationalist, which makes me wonder about anyone who cozies up to him. He got his political start by allowing a pogrom that massacred hundreds of Muslims in some western state.
I know millions of Indian farmers have staged protests lately, and I do believe the Congress Party made some gains in the last election, so yeah, Modi's pulling the oldest political trick in the book.
When in trouble domestically, create a foreign policy crisis and wrap yourself in the flag. Modi's just doing the Bollywood version.
The fact that India thinks it’s going to be a world power is hilarious cause they are in constant internal conflict and they can’t even provide basic services to their citizens. If my country 🇲🇽 can do it, they can. India is really following the steps of the US, humiliation and decay.
Some people talk about China and India as if they're equals as states. They are in another world.
Yep, At least China promotes the idea of national unity, India on the other hand still employs the old divide and conquer tactics.
So you think “at least” China promotes totalitarianism and India still employs democracy, eh?
What is the point of having democracy if it only represents one faction of the Indian population?
Please explain that a bit more as I’m not certain what point you are making. 👍
ah the jew is PAGEET.
figures
Yes - China’s population is collapsing whereas India’s population is rising.
Where is most of the manufacturing in the world? 🤔
Also how much is the hasbara machine paying you to say all that nonsense on your profile?
I suspect you hadn’t noticed the population in China started dropping about 5 years ago and the repercussions of the one child policy will soon kick in to see the numbers drop rapidly.
One of the effects of this is labour costs in China have risen steeply hastening the outsourcing to Vietnam and other cheaper places to produce.
China’s grip as the world’s predominant production powerhouse will slowly loosen as their population declines.
BTW: Whenever you see someone mention hasbara it’s a good sign they are of a particularly gullible disposition.
🤣😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣
While reading this, I kept thinking of how in my hometown of San Diego they've had to literally bleach the streets because there was so much human feces because there are so many unhoused people with nowhere to shit there. America can fund a genocide in Israel but can't give it's citizens basic services like healthcare, toilets, or education.
I appreciate the sentiment of your comment and the truth of what you say, but I don't think you can truly appreciate the concept of people defecating on the streets until you've been to India and stood at a crowded intersection waiting to cross the street when the person standing next to you squats down and does his business right next to you on the sidewalk. There is so much feces everywhere that people living in cardboard boxes are out in the morning on their hands and knees with a board scraping the feces off the sidewalk in front of their cardboard houses.
"Here’s the real mathematics behind modern fascism: when you can’t deliver development, deliver dopamine hits of nationalism instead."
That is powerful!
OMG, We really haven't advanced much, wonder how they would be doing without billionaires?
Just what we need now - a nice little war between 2 nuclear armed enemies.
To be fair, they've come a long way in a short period. That 10% figure was 70% not too long ago.
I do think Modi is a performative nationalist. He's basically using the fear of foreigners to prop up his government, something many similar nations do (like ours). Yet it's not all negative - under Modi India has retained its non-aligned status to a great degree. It would have been an easy and natural move for him to ally fully with Trump's America (I'm not especially opposed to Trump, but vassalage is not healthy for any polity)
India will do very well this century if it acts as a conduit between West and East. Maintain good relations with both, focus on development at home.
As far as Pakistan goes - their legitimate leader is still imprisoned on the orders of the US State Department. Perhaps if he was released from prison Khan would be able to sort out some of these issues on their side.
Something that's not being talked about is how Pakistan is not exactly aching to launch nuclear missiles everywhere. Conflict is almost certainly restrained as a result of Pakistan also having nuclear weapons. If only India had them (as indeed, only Israel does in that conflict) then it's pretty much guaranteed that there would be a full scale war on right now.
What does this say about any prospective Iranian nuclear program? Could it bring similar restraint to that region? I highly doubt the Israelis would bomb Tehran if they had nuclear weapons.
As far as the risk of nuclear escalation goes, it's worth remembering that on both sides (India and Pakistan), the people with the authority to launch those missiles live in incredibly opulent palaces and for obvious reasons have as much reason as anyone to see the continuation of their cities without mushroom clouds. When you're living the high life you aren't exactly keen on nuclear war.
But who knows. All it takes is one mistake.
Every single one an excellent point. Thanks JC! And yeah I would like to see Khan released. He's actually being pretty calm about being locked up. India will only 'do good' when it takes care of its people like China does though
Has Modi’s desperation finally come to a head? Not sure if this was not arranged by some nice people from the outside. What was this for a Franrange-Friendly deal Stramer and his crew lanced yesterday? I Had a phone call with friends and ex-colleagues in Lahore and Delhi last night and can't get the popcorn out. https://substack.com/home/post/p-163044940
You are absolutely on the right track: Modi is more concerned with the Hindu mode and scaring the ever-growing middle class so that they don't get too cheeky with their demands on the oligarchs.
A leader with NO PRIORITY WHATSOEVER. His priority is something else, and it's obviously not peace or his own people security. He is like indian version of Netanyahu, let'a go on war first, think later.
It never ceases to amaze me how the so called west applies lenses to others that it never applies to itself.
Just for context:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/12/27/how-many-people-are-homeless-us-2024/77020773007/
Homelessness rates jumped by double digits in 2024 as Americans battled to afford housing
Across the U.S., more than 771,800 people lived without housing in 2024, according to a count taken annually on a single night in January. The number for January 2024 is 18.1% higher than in 2023
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statutory-homelessness-in-england-financial-year-2023-24/statutory-homelessness-in-england-financial-year-2023-24
146,430 households were assessed as being threatened with homelessness and therefore owed a prevention duty in 2023-24. This is a 3.1% increase from 2022-23.
Meanwhile:
https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-international-arms-transfers-2024
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges
Spending in a record number of NATO members reaches 2 per cent of GDP
All NATO members increased their military expenditure in 2024. Total military spending by NATO members amounted to $1506 billion, or 55 per cent of global military expenditure....
Military spending by the USA rose by 5.7 per cent to reach $997 billion, which was 66 per cent of total NATO spending and 37 per cent of world military spending in 2024. ...
In 2024 the United Kingdom increased its military expenditure by 2.8 per cent to reach $81.8 billion, making it the sixth biggest spender worldwide.....
Never mind India and Pakistan - sort out priorities in over here first.
Fully agree with you, mate! That's why 99% of my article are about the West!
I don't discriminate between bloodthirsty capitalists.
Good piece, Deaglan. I found your points clear and analysis well-founded; also Rahul added generously and insightfully to what you wrote.
I understand your writing in general. But its very easy for such things to be misused as diversions, if not grounded in own insanities.
There has been a similar situation with Ukraine. Seemingly unnoticed by many people there is a wave of tubercolosis infection eruption across Europe. The reason: migration of refugees from Europe "sick man" country, Ukraine. A country that was the poorest and most corrupt in Europe, and its "leader" yet went to the US and UK to collect money for weapons and even to operate bioweapons labs (!!) while the Ukrainian people were STILL living under such negelected condition that tuberculosis was and has been rampant among the Ukranian people.
And yet you wont find hardly a word in the European media that even explains that this TB infection is from Ukranian migrants, let alone to ask WFT everyone in Europe and the US continites to give them weapons, while ignoring even their basic healthcare for several decades now.
Westerners must really be continually shown this lens of how their own insanities are really not different than the ones outside. Its necessary to pop this bubble of a completely unfounced superiority complex
Are you daft?
I live in Italy and TB is real. I also have an autoimmune disease and when I need to get procedures I now not only need to get the usual blood test and EKG, I have to make sure I don't have TB infection. That wasn't the case five years ago. It was just assumed we don't have it.
Your comment might work if you were responding to a different writer but doesn't really work for Deaglan as he calls out ALL countries for this bullshit
My comment is valid in ALL circumstances. Such commentaries should be grounded in the overall context.
The responses to this conflict have been insane. I read a huge article in Reuters yesteday saying this conflict was irresponible because it involves nuclear-armed countries. Yes, the same Reuters that has been cheerleading a western proxy war that includes attacks on Russian strategic bomber facilities and radar facilties, and assassinations of the head of Russian nucelar forces.
Any western comment in this must of course be first grounded in the own insanities of the west.
Without reinforcing that first, this will simply be absorbed as a means of diversion from own problems.
Oh, you're a Putin dick-sucker, that explains it.
You have nothing to say whatsoever. Go away.
To be fair the current waste water system is far more disgusting than natural defecation if the waste is composted.
What many people do not know is that we are creating forever pollution and wasting a massive resource at huge cost because we have not advanced our technology for centuries while adding plastics and chemicals into the mix.
why dont they poop before they leave the house?!
or at work?
or at a Starbucks?
I cant remember the last time i had a Defcon 1 shit situation.
Who knows, maybe they eat alot of fiber 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Honestly, sounds like 90% of all 3rd world countries. The problems seem to be always the same: rampant corruption, sectarianism (india sidesteped secular justicion by judging people according to laws of their specific religion), tribalism and a general disunity among the ethnic groups within the country.
Its too many problems at once for even the most capablea leaders to manage. So they pounce at the first problem that gives them the opportunity to unite the populace behind them. Not that western govs do anything else....
As of May 11, 2025, neither India nor Pakistan has officially declared war. However, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have experienced a significant military escalation in recent weeks, marking one of the most serious confrontations in decades.