nobody wins in a US-China trade war but the US working class will lose...a lot.
tariffs, inequality, and incompetence spell disaster for everyday Americans while China adapts and thrives.
Good day, spectators,
So the Empire is at it again. Glorious Emperor Trump, not long into his second term, has, after already causing much chaos and death, decided that poking the dragon will be his next order of business.
And China, tired of US nonsense, just slapped a whopping 85% tariff on US imports. Considering it seems Donald Trump is adamant about escalating I thought that I would explore the question of: who actually wins this economic throwdown?
And spoiler alert: it’s probably not the Americans.
the delusion.
So, on one side, we have Trump who is beating his chest again about 'making China pay' and 'bringing jobs back.' This is nothing new and we've heard this song before. The reality is far less impressive and when the Empire starts trade wars, it's everyday Americans who end up footing the bill through higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing to food and everything else.
But here's what makes this round particularly fascinating: the US is not the superpower it was even during Trump's first term. The country is literally crumbling—both physically and socially. Its ravaged its geopolitical relations and misunderstood its place in our world.
China has time.
Beijing isn't playing a quick game of checkers here—they're playing Go. Unlike the US and its quarterly-obsessed economy, China thinks in decades. The country has already been diversifying away from US markets, strengthening ties with the Global South through initiatives like Belt and Road, and investing heavily in technological self-sufficiency.
When the US cuts off chip exports, China doubles down on domestic production.
When the US creates an AI tool, they create a more efficient one.
When Trump threatens their economy, China accelerates trade with Africa, Latin America, and ASEAN.
Our eastern friends are always ten steps ahead and the US is struggling to cope with that.
the United States’ social problem.
Now here is where it gets really interesting and this is going to form the crux of my article here. The US is entering into this trade war with unprecedented levels of inequality. The top 1% owns more wealth than the bottom 90% combined. When tariffs hit and prices rise, who the hell do you think absorbs that pain?
It’s not BlackRock. It’s not Wall Street and it’s certainly not the the tech oligarchs.
It's the every day, normal workers like you and me. The people who Trump claims to champion who will watch as prices for basic goods skyrocket and the manufacturing jobs still don't return (because obviously they'll go to Vietnam or Mexico, not bloody Ohio)
On top of that, the already-threadbare and laughable excuse for a ‘social safety net’ the US has will be stretched even thinner
Meanwhile, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty in recent decades. Their system, for its flaws, prioritises stability and long-term planning over maximising shareholder value this quarter. Simply put, they take care of the people.
the Empire's Achilles heel.
I am going to be honest, it’s not looking good for the US and the most revealing part of this conflict isn't economic—but social. Its political system is so broken that it can't sustain a coherent trade strategy across administrations. Its infrastructure is failing. Its people are divided and increasingly desperate.
China, by contrast, can weather economic pain without risking regime change. They can redirect resources, subsidise strategic industries, and maintain public support through difficult periods.
The most ironic thing of all is that Trump's trade war will accelerate exactly what he claims to be fighting: US decline. By raising prices, disrupting supply chains, and antagonising its largest trading partner, he's setting up the working class for more hardship while China continues building its alternative vision for global trade.
The question isn't whether the US can 'win' a trade war with China’—it's whether the American system can survive one at all. My bet? China endures while America's social fabric tears further apart.
What do you think, spectators? Comment below, I love the discussion.
(And as always, thanks for reading, make sure to subscribe and do please give this post a ❤️ and restack below.)
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Read more from the spectacle:
Who the fuck goes toe to toe with China? Trump versus a literal economic genius? Who would win?
To be honest it's terrifying what's happening here. The UK has led by donkeys but we're led by pigeons, they have nothing in their head but goo, they are so stupid. Who the fuck goes toe to toe with China. I am genuinely confused. Revolution needed, simple as.
Here's what could kick off the social violence: the fall of the dollar as reserve currency as the trade war makes US imports dry up. Who knows exactly how much that will shave off the value of our US dollars at home, but it will make everything we buy more expensive. Having nothing but useless dollars to spend could make people desperate and bring chaos and revenge.