Schrödinger's Russia.
or how a country is simultaneously on the verge of collapse and poised for European domination.
Good day, spectators,
I wanted to write about a topic that’s been floating around in my head for quite some time now—and it’s one that seems to be gaining traction as the war in Ukraine slowly seems to be winding down. It’s the idea of Schrödinger’s Russia, and whilst I didn’t coin the term, I am going to do my best to describe the concept.
What is it? Well, it’s the paradox that Russia exists in a permanent state of simultaneous collapse and unmatched strength. One moment, we’re told it’s on the verge of economic and military implosion. The next, it’s apparently knocking at Europe’s door, ready to roll over the continent like it’s 1945.
This contradictory position is usually adopted by two types of people: casual observers who only absorb what’s on their local news, and those who consume far too much of a one-sided narrative rather than engaging with multiple perspectives to form their own conclusions. A vast number of casual current affairs followers fit neatly into these categories, embodying the paradox without even realising it.
So, where does the truth lie?
the reality.
It’s really not that tricky. If mainstream Western news networks are aggressively pushing a certain narrative, you can be fairly sure the truth lies…elsewhere.
In the case of Schrödinger’s Russia, we are told two conflicting stories at once:
Russia is collapsing and Ukraine is on the brink of victory.
If we don’t stop Russia now, it will take over all of Europe.
Both of these narratives are absurd. The truth is, as always, somewhere in between.
Russia has the military capability to continue its campaign in Ukraine until it achieves its objectives—namely, control over the eastern regions. Be under no illusion: Russia is advancing, steadily taking key positions and so-called fortress towns that are quietly abandoned by Ukrainian forces. Just the other day, Ukraine lost Velyka Novosilka. Before that, Kurakhove. If you relied solely on Western media, you’d never know these towns had fallen—you only hear about them when Ukraine is defending them, but once they’re lost, they disappear from the headlines.
We’re now three years into this war. Ukraine has lost over a third of its population through death, displacement, or occupation. Support for the war in Europe is at an all-time low, and Donald Trump is looming on the horizon like a wrecking ball. NATO unity is also little more than a nostalgic dream.
The problem, before we even get into the wider geopolitical calculations, is simple mathematics. Russia has the manpower to keep going. Ukraine, on the other hand, is running out of motivated fighters. After years of death and destruction, most of those who were willing to fight already have. The ones who remain are left wondering: is more war worth a handful of eastern regions, where much of the population already considers itself Russian-aligned?
For the war hawks pushing the Schrödinger’s Russia paradox, Ukraine must fight to the very last man. Because if they don’t, Russia will supposedly break through and conquer us all. And yet, at the same time, these same voices insist that Ukraine is destroying Russia and that Russia is incompetent. How does that make any sense?
The reality is that Russia can see this war through to the end. Barring direct military intervention from a powerful nation (which won’t happen), Ukraine will have to fight this alone. And once the war does end, Russia will pay a price, as any country does after a large-scale conflict. But the idea that it will emerge from this, fists swinging and ready to sweep across Europe is just pure Cold War propaganda. Low effort I dare say.
Even if Russia wanted to—which it doesn’t—it simply wouldn’t have the capability. It will take years for Russia to rearm and recover from this war. The idea that it’s plotting to take over Europe is just fear-mongering designed to keep Western populations soft and happy to throw billions at Ukraine instead of at our own struggling public systems.
No, the truth is much simpler: it’s just incredibly useful for Western governments and media to convince the average European that the fate of Ukraine is the fate of Europe itself.
the purpose of the paradox.
What’s the real-world effect of this paradox? Confusion. And confused people are easier to control. It’s all quite Orwellian really.
How does it benefit the average working-class European, or the average working-class Ukrainian, to pretend that Russia is either about to collapse or about to invade us all? Why is it so difficult for Western media to say what is plainly obvious—that Ukraine is not doing well, that Russia will probably ‘win’ at great cost, and that, no, there is no reason to fear that Russia is coming to get us all? On a geopolitical level, there is no interest or logic in Russia doing so.
And yet, getting this simple truth from mainstream Western media feels like pulling blood from a stone. To be honest, I am actually more worried about the United States’ ambitions than Russia's at this exact moment in time.
Anyway, spectators, I’ll leave you now and let you crack on with your weekend. For my paid subscribers, you can look forward to a deep-dive, long read article on Sudan’s current tragic crisis, coming out this Sunday.
Please let me know where you think the Russia and Ukraine war is headed, will it end this year? Make yourself heard in the comments. I love the discussion,
(As always, thanks for reading and please give this post a ❤️ and restack below.)
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Great article.
I don’t get why people avoid the most obvious thing about whole this war. Would you want to have military bases of Russia somewhere nearby Hawaii? Well, Russia doesn’t want to have the US and NATO nearby too. That’s simple. At the same time, it is not possible to take it as a genocide too, as with all the horrors of the war, it is going slow. Russia could destroy everything in 3-7 days. Maybe even in a day. But it didn’t happen. Though there are some questions about that all the oligarchy bases in Ukraine weren’t destroyed. I’m curious about this thing. If you will find something about it and write, it would be interesting to read too. Because it also looks like incongruity to me and makes to built conspiracies. Though, as I know, Russia is targeting military bases mainly.